Let’s take a look at a specific situation, and what you should do vs. what the blackjack chart tells you to do.
So, what should you do when you have 16 and the dealer shows a 10. Do you hit as your told? Do you stand? Are you counting, and if so, does the count factor into what your decision should be? All good questions. Here’s a clue to the answer.
Basic online blackjack chart strategy guides you to hit the dealer’s 16 because that’s the rule (hole card 10). Since such a high percentage of the deck has cards that hold a value of 10, that strategy mirrors the thought process that you should always assume the hidden dealer card is going to be worth 10. Mathematically, it’ll happen approximately 4 out of 13 times, regardless of how many decks are being used.
There’s no getting around that 16 is crap for hitting. 8 out of 13 times you’re going to bust if you hit on 16. Add that to the strategy that if you anticipate the dealer having 20, you have no choice but to take that chance, because a 7-9 will also beat you (and in some casinos a 6 will, too), and you’re seemingly left with no other option but to hit.
What should you do? Statistically you should hit, which is why the chart tells you that. But you can see why it’s a difficult decision for many players. For those counting and playing a count, there are different theories for when basic strategy should be followed. Some will only follow it if the count is between -4 and +4 while others extend that to 5 or 6 on each end. In my opinion, if the true count is zero or close to zero, you should stand on 16 and not even think about it.
Also worth noting, the basic blackjack strategy chart is factored from the top of the deck. So if you see the dealer’s 10, that changes the running count by -1. In situations where the true count is less than zero, general card counting strategy would guide you to hit.
Bottom line, if you’re not counting, you should stick to the basic strategy, which is a mathematical system to help you reduce the house odds. It won’t work for you every time, but in absence of the knowledge card counting provides, it’s your best weapon against the dealer.
